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Prediction markets for Yes

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.68%chance

301639757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2690

2506

This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

May 16, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.48%chance

5760084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7946

94

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

3024238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Oct 18, 7:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

1.99%chance

239228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4215

28

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

619077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

750

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

46.44%chance

461858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

101

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

50.37%chance

17245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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