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Prediction markets for Yes

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

Jensen Huang (YES) vs Pope Leo (NO): Time POTY 2025

Nov 30, 4:22 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

65%chance

10849739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1280

979

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

2824036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

1421245

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-8

9-12

13-17

95

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 7:05 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2016346

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-7

86

7

2

2

2

1

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.14%chance

599061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

735

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

34.93%chance

451828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

71

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 72 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

49.78%chance

15223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

00

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