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Prediction markets for Yes Indeed

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54%chance

602394096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16776

7995

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

Mar 24, 10:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

27841742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3943

936

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

376139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?

May 17, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:11 AM

10.87%chance

203766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2864

349

Will Jensen Huang become a trillionaire before January 1st, 2030?

Jan 22, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.5%chance

191868

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

633

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Dec 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

30.57%chance

181015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

704

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.41%chance

191003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

979

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.15%chance

10711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

997

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

"Britcoin" by 2030?

Feb 10, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

14277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

974

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