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Prediction markets for Yield

10-year US treasuries yield >10% any time before 2026

Oct 6, 9:37 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

1.1%chance

2014728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5950

781

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2025?

May 13, 12:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.54%chance

135515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3501

286

Will a crop disease/fungus/blight significantly decrease North American crop yields before 2026?

Jun 18, 11:20 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.78%chance

203639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2667

571

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Jun 29, 7:58 PMJul 1, 7:56 PM

9981

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

87

11

1

1

Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?

May 27, 12:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.29%chance

15516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

382

139

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

4445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will the ten year treasury yield on December 16, 2025 be below 4%?

Nov 1, 6:36 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

7442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

884

If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?

Nov 8, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.78%chance

17401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

937

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.64%chance

2352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

740

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5232

OptionProbability

2.5-3%

3-3.5%

Over 3.5%

2-2.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

30

22

18

15

10

6

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