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Prediction markets for Yield

What is Manifold's Yield Curve?

Mar 21, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

249611

OptionProbability

Resolves NO in 2150

Resolves NO in 2030

Resolves NO in 2035

Resolves NO in 2055

Resolves NO in 2026

3

2

2

2

0

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.16%chance

6553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1229

814

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

5470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?

Nov 8, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.78%chance

17401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

937

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.41%chance

3358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

773

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.64%chance

2352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

740

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5232

OptionProbability

2.5-3%

3-3.5%

Over 3.5%

2-2.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

30

22

18

15

10

6

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.16%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

958

Will medium duration TIPS yields go below -1% again before 2060?

Dec 17, 2:14 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

29%chance

3108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

41

What will be the MAX yield produced by my bell peppers 🫑 ?

May 30, 6:13 PMMay 30, 8:59 PM

657

OptionProbability

3 pods

4 pods

5 pods

1 pod

2 pods

28

20

20

19

13

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