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Prediction markets for Yield

What is Manifold's Yield Curve?

Mar 21, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

249611

OptionProbability

Resolves NO in 2150

Resolves NO in 2030

Resolves NO in 2035

Resolves NO in 2055

Resolves NO in 2026

3

2

2

2

0

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

9.16%chance

112654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3150

317

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

141287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

547

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.37%chance

81209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

898

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

9768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

10709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1458

686

Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?

May 27, 12:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80%chance

15530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

392

137

If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?

Nov 8, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.78%chance

17401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

937

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

45.76%chance

11377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

544

436

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10362

OptionProbability

Over 3.5%

2.5-3%

3-3.5%

2-2.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

28

24

18

13

11

6

Will medium duration TIPS yields go below -1% again before 2060?

Dec 17, 2:14 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

22%chance

4127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

34

What will be the MAX yield produced by my bell peppers 🫑 ?

May 30, 6:13 PMMay 30, 8:59 PM

657

OptionProbability

3 pods

4 pods

5 pods

1 pod

2 pods

28

20

20

19

13

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