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Prediction markets for Yield

What is Manifold's Yield Curve?

Mar 21, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

249611

OptionProbability

Resolves NO in 2150

Resolves NO in 2030

Resolves NO in 2035

Resolves NO in 2055

Resolves NO in 2026

3

2

2

2

0

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Jun 29, 7:58 PMJul 1, 7:56 PM

91023

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

90

8

1

1

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.55%chance

7563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.38%chance

5520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

935

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.83%chance

3452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1452

689

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.38%chance

4408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?

Nov 8, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.78%chance

17401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

937

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6237

OptionProbability

2.5-3%

Over 3.5%

3-3.5%

2-2.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

30

21

20

14

10

6

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.16%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

958

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

38%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

528

478

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