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Prediction markets for Yield

What is Manifold's Yield Curve?

Mar 21, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

249611

OptionProbability

Resolves NO in 2150

Resolves NO in 2030

Resolves NO in 2035

Resolves NO in 2055

Resolves NO in 2026

3

2

2

2

0

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

7.16%chance

113104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3600

278

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.42%chance

162952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3492

286

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.29%chance

141767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2508

399

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.64%chance

121463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1811

552

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.57%chance

81309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

824

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

68.67%chance

14673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

800

247

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10512

OptionProbability

Over 3.5%

3-3.5%

2.5-3%

2-2.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

44

16

14

12

8

5

If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?

Nov 8, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.78%chance

17401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

937

Will US 10-year treasury yield exceed 6 percent before 2028?

Sep 15, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.58%chance

486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

What will be the MAX yield produced by my bell peppers 🫑 ?

May 30, 6:13 PMMay 30, 8:59 PM

657

OptionProbability

3 pods

4 pods

5 pods

1 pod

2 pods

28

20

20

19

13

Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close at 5.25% or higher before November 16, 2026?

Sep 17, 9:02 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

27.56%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

80

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