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Prediction markets for Zero

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

27.55%chance

411470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

778

Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060?

Apr 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.93%chance

221218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

395

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.85%chance

15617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

760

Zero Shot stock

Apr 9, 9:52 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

14592

OptionProbability

YES

NO

271

194

When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?

Jan 9, 10:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12218

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2026

2025

2024

34

26

17

15

8

In what decade will global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry be zero or less?

Aug 4, 1:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5133

OptionProbability

2060s

2050s

2100+ or never.

2070s

2040s

2030s

2080s

2090s

42

13

11

10

8

5

5

5

Will "AI found 12 of 12 OpenSSL zero-days (while cu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 9:03 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will Starship fail in its zero-degree AoA deadzone?

Aug 30, 8:33 AMDec 31, 9:22 AM

27.88%chance

492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will federal student loan be given with zero interest in the US by 2050?

Mar 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.97%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

113

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