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Prediction markets for Zero

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

28.3%chance

391412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

789

Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060?

Apr 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.93%chance

221218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

395

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.85%chance

15617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

760

Zero Shot stock

Apr 9, 9:52 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

14592

OptionProbability

YES

NO

271

194

When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?

Jan 9, 10:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12218

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2026

2025

2024

34

26

17

15

8

Who will be the next #1 Manifold trader to hit zero?

Jan 26, 9:38 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

5173

OptionProbability

Other

@MarcusAbramovitch

@jack

@Preen

83

8

4

4

Will "AI found 12 of 12 OpenSSL zero-days (while cu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 9:03 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will Lighthaven replace its coffee-makers with lower-plastic (or zero-plastic) coffee-makers between 2024 and EOY2026?

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will zero trust networking be considered less secure in the tech industry?

May 1, 6:53 PMMay 2, 6:45 PM

36.04%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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