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Prediction markets for Zero

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

At the end of 2025 will the top 5 Mr Beast videos all have Dollar Signs and at least three Zeros in their titles?

May 4, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.28%chance

214778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2443

424

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

28.3%chance

391412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

789

Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060?

Apr 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.93%chance

221218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

395

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.94%chance

14367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

840

When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?

Jan 9, 10:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12218

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2026

2025

2024

34

26

17

15

8

Who will be the next #1 Manifold trader to hit zero?

Jan 26, 9:38 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

5173

OptionProbability

Other

@MarcusAbramovitch

@jack

@Preen

83

8

4

4

Did OpenAI use MUP for zero shot hyper-parameter transfer in GPT-4?

Mar 16, 5:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81%chance

5170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

81

Will Nintendo re-release the F-Zero anime in any form in the United States before February 2026?

Jul 15, 3:27 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

38.19%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040?

Jun 7, 2:15 AMJan 11, 4:59 AM

35%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87

57

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