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Prediction markets for Zero

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

OpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027?

Oct 7, 1:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.96%chance

83899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3294

233

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

183427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

780

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

27.55%chance

411470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

778

Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060?

Apr 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.93%chance

221218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

395

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Sep 9, 2:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.59%chance

71205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1985

843

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.22%chance

15717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

733

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

When will we have the first zero-tax-paying 1B USD valued company?

Aug 11, 4:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

3101

OptionProbability

Never or after 2040

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2040

Before 2025

60

17

9

9

6

Will "AI found 12 of 12 OpenSSL zero-days (while cu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 9:03 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

When will Raspberry Pi officially announce the Raspberry Pi Zero 3 W?

Oct 28, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Oct-Dec 2026

Jan-Mar 2027

Apr-Jun 2027

Jul-Sep 2027

Oct-Dec 2027

After Dec 2027

17

17

17

17

17

17

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