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Prediction markets for Zero

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

28.82%chance

401420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

797

Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060?

Apr 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.93%chance

221218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

395

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Which politician on this list of 18 politicians will pass away next, or all zero if all live to mid 2027

Mar 2, 9:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7706

OptionProbability

Jair Bolsonaro (1955)

All live until June 30 2027 eod

Raul Castro (1931)

Mahmoud Abbas (1935)

Donald Trump (1946)

Vladimir Putin (1952)

Bashar al-Assad (1965)

Xi Jinping (1953)

Kim Jong Un (1982, 1983, or 1984)

Nicolas Maduro (1962)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (1978)

Angela Merkel (1954)

Viktor Orbán (1963)

Narendra Modi (1950)

Alexander Lukashenko (1954)

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (1954)

Nicolas Sarkozy (1955)

Tony Blair (1953)

Boris Johnson (1964)

27

15

13

7

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.85%chance

15617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

760

In what decade will global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry be zero or less?

Aug 4, 1:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5133

OptionProbability

2060s

2050s

2100+ or never.

2070s

2040s

2030s

2080s

2090s

42

13

11

10

8

5

5

5

Will a new F-Zero game be released before 2030?

Sep 15, 11:07 AMJan 2, 1:29 PM

71.55%chance

4128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will "AI found 12 of 12 OpenSSL zero-days (while cu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 9:03 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will Lighthaven replace its coffee-makers with lower-plastic (or zero-plastic) coffee-makers between 2024 and EOY2026?

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040?

Jun 7, 2:15 AMJan 11, 4:59 AM

30.64%chance

535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

97

53

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