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Prediction markets for 10

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

262479246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10207

8290

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.75%chance

186325612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

758

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.71%chance

85130764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2919

859

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.25%chance

11456464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9350

3477

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.76%chance

10518956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15777

4360

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

18.83%chance

2818701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20765

4816

Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?

Mar 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

5517229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.41%chance

3311183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8133

1545

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

Will I have 10 new posts on my website by the end of 2025?

Jan 3, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.42%chance

8780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

950

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.91%chance

12550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3605

3380

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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