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Prediction markets for 10X

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13307

8366

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

Feb 1, 5:55 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

10813288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

247

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

86.31%chance

193431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

398

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.01%chance

172834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?

Apr 7, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.24%chance

12734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

111

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

May 1, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.69%chance

12429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

950

During what year will the cost of CO2 sequestration per tonne drop by 10x from 2023 prices?

Oct 24, 3:53 AMOct 31, 6:59 AM

8424

OptionProbability

2030s

2040s

2060-2099

2050s

2026-2029

>=2100

2025

2024

29

23

23

21

17

12

11

6

Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?

Mar 7, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.54%chance

9283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

968

Will Jacob Kalinovskiy 10x value at Recall.ai?

Sep 18, 7:43 PMNov 30, 8:00 AM

68.55%chance

3210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

68

Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x)

Aug 4, 4:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.93%chance

6102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

369

270

By when will SAT solvers be 10x faster (than 2023 on same hardware)?

Nov 25, 3:49 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

2030

2040

2100

40

40

21

If ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?

Sep 6, 10:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15.99%chance

19

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

29

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