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Prediction markets for 150

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96.36%chance

99910359715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

33779

8037

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

56.4%chance

214112480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

1190

Will I live to be 150 years old?

Apr 20, 10:07 AMJun 15, 1:03 AM

14.38%chance

6137678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

946

Will the price of oil reach $150 before the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 6:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.06%chance

13835801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9110

3410

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

70%chance

8733879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

256

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.36%chance

15429506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4091

1496

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

May 12, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

9026623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

871

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.82%chance

167667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14308

6989

Will humans born between 1990-2000 be able to live for 150 years?

Oct 8, 5:24 PMOct 15, 10:59 PM

46.13%chance

486044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

366

Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030?

Dec 13, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

9.57%chance

463811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2554

134

Will California authorize at least 150,000 housing units in one year by 2028?

Oct 23, 10:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

39.73%chance

4374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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