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Prediction markets for 150

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.52%chance

9529409680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

23344

8523

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

59.5%chance

205112159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1686

1115

Will I live to be 150 years old?

Apr 20, 10:07 AMJun 15, 1:03 AM

21.73%chance

6137278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

776

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.05%chance

15329494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4170

1484

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

40%chance

6226750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

638

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

May 12, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.27%chance

8726035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

968

Will humans born between 1990-2000 be able to live for 150 years?

Oct 8, 5:24 PMOct 15, 10:59 PM

61.82%chance

475623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

220

Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030?

Dec 13, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.41%chance

433269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2033

212

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.75%chance

211404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

895

Will California authorize at least 150,000 housing units in one year by 2028?

Oct 23, 10:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

39.73%chance

4374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

Will “Vance” rise at least 150 places in the 2025 American baby name rankings?

Nov 10, 4:38 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.28%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

918

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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