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Prediction markets for 20th Century

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

654

How many days will Avatar: Fire and Ash be #1 in US Box Office?

Jan 7, 1:49 PMAug 31, 8:59 PM

53150

OptionProbability

29 - 34

35 - 40

41 - 46

Below 29

47 - 52

53 - 56

Above 56

92

5

1

0

0

0

0

Who will be the last 20th century US Senator?

May 10, 12:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82930

OptionProbability

Patty Murray (1993)

Ron Wyden (1996)

Mike Crapo (1999)

Chuck Schumer (1999)

Susan Collins (1997)

Jack Reed (1997)

Chuck Grassley (1981)

Dick Durbin (1997)

Mitch McConnell (1985)

26

17

16

15

12

9

3

1

1

Will there be a permanent population in Antarctica before a semipermanent population on the moon?

Jan 23, 10:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.5%chance

362837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

876

Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?

Aug 27, 2:11 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.34%chance

151222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

710

What decade will humanity establish the first permanent colony on the Moon?

Sep 4, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14655

OptionProbability

2040 - 2050

2030 - 2040

After 2070

2060 - 2070

2050 - 2060

Between now and 2030

44

34

8

6

5

3

Will the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes be 60% or higher at the conclusion of the current Palestine war?

Dec 10, 12:20 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

91%chance

12525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

942

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

In what year will a nuclear bomb next be used offensively?

Mar 9, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7306

OptionProbability

2030 - 2039

2040 - 2049

2025 - 2029

2050 - 2059

After 2100

2060 - 2079

2080 - 2100

20

20

15

14

12

10

9

In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?

Mar 31, 7:34 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

70%chance

12284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

93

Describe the best chess player in the 20th century - Ṁ5 for the 1st response

Dec 26, 5:44 AM

00

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