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Prediction markets for 20th Century

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will there be a permanent population in Antarctica before a semipermanent population on the moon?

Jan 23, 10:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.5%chance

362837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

876

Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?

Aug 27, 2:11 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.13%chance

141183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

725

Who will be the last 20th century US Senator?

May 10, 12:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6852

OptionProbability

Chuck Schumer (1999)

Mike Crapo (1999)

Susan Collins (1997)

Jack Reed (1997)

Dick Durbin (1997)

Ron Wyden (1996)

Patty Murray (1993)

Chuck Grassley (1981)

Mitch McConnell (1985)

16

15

14

11

11

11

11

8

2

What decade will humanity establish the first permanent colony on the Moon?

Sep 4, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13555

OptionProbability

2040 - 2050

2030 - 2040

After 2070

2060 - 2070

2050 - 2060

Between now and 2030

43

34

8

6

5

4

Will the toothbrush mustache (as most commonly associated with Adolf Hitler) regain popularity by the end of 2025?

Jan 21, 2:12 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

6.19%chance

6503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

389

26

Will the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes be 60% or higher at the conclusion of the current Palestine war?

Dec 10, 12:20 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

90.92%chance

11502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

943

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

In what year will a nuclear bomb next be used offensively?

Mar 9, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7306

In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?

Mar 31, 7:34 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

70%chance

12284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

93

Describe the best chess player in the 20th century - Ṁ5 for the 1st response

Dec 26, 5:44 AM

00

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