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Prediction markets for 20th Century

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

654

Who will be the last 20th century US Senator?

May 10, 12:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82930

OptionProbability

Patty Murray (1993)

Ron Wyden (1996)

Mike Crapo (1999)

Chuck Schumer (1999)

Susan Collins (1997)

Jack Reed (1997)

Chuck Grassley (1981)

Dick Durbin (1997)

Mitch McConnell (1985)

26

17

16

15

12

9

3

1

1

Will there be a permanent population in Antarctica before a semipermanent population on the moon?

Jan 23, 10:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.5%chance

362837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

876

What will be the world's RESERVE CURRENCY by 2035?

Jun 3, 3:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

502811

OptionProbability

US dollar

Bitcoin

GBP - British Pound

CNH - offshore yuan

CNY - Chinese Yuan

EUR - European Union Euro

XAU - Gold

BTC - Bitcoin

USDC

Dai

ETH - Ethereum

JPY - Japanese Yen

Other

Euro

USDT (Tether)

West African CFA franc

a new BRICS currency

39

15

10

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

0

0

0

0

Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?

Aug 27, 2:11 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.34%chance

151222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

710

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

What decade will humanity establish the first permanent colony on the Moon?

Sep 4, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14655

OptionProbability

2040 - 2050

2030 - 2040

After 2070

2060 - 2070

2050 - 2060

Between now and 2030

44

34

8

6

5

3

Will the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes be 60% or higher at the conclusion of the current Palestine war?

Dec 10, 12:20 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

91%chance

12525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

942

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?

Mar 31, 7:34 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

68%chance

13287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

97

Describe the best chess player in the 20th century - Ṁ5 for the 1st response

Dec 26, 5:44 AM

00

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