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Prediction markets for 21

Will the Bitcoin money supply exceed 21 million units any time before 2040?

Jan 20, 5:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.41%chance

1813531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4865

838

Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?

Apr 21, 2:05 PMOct 20, 11:59 PM

4.99%chance

356671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3483

732

from now march 21 2026 Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before 2027?”

Mar 21, 8:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

94699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?

May 4, 5:35 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

58.94%chance

133392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

8.32%chance

242891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3218

477

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

301379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

891

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

17.17%chance

151215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3494

2367

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.5%chance

51054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

Lily from Twitter/X (@nope_its_lily) emigrates from the US to another country by Jan 21, 2029

Jan 21, 1:34 AMJan 21, 1:00 AM

10.06%chance

2199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Jan 28, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.98%chance

12175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

945

Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century?

Sep 28, 10:16 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

58.31%chance

4139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

When will there be the option to cure/eliminate trisomy 21?

Jun 19, 5:15 PMJan 1, 6:00 PM

150

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

Not available by 2038

2026-2027

15

15

15

15

15

15

12

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