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Prediction markets for 21

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

11.92%chance

212184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2511

555

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

301379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

891

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

15955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3233

2424

Will Ukraine joins NATO before there is a new largest known Prime number? (Last one - Oct 21 2024)

Oct 21, 3:45 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM

4.73%chance

12741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

449

22

Jet Lag: The Game - Will there be another season of Tag before Season 21?

Oct 30, 11:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75%chance

11369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Lily from Twitter/X (@nope_its_lily) emigrates from the US to another country by Jan 21, 2029

Jan 21, 1:34 AMJan 21, 1:00 AM

10.06%chance

2199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Jan 28, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.98%chance

12175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

945

Who will win taskmaster series 21

Jan 8, 1:25 AMApr 16, 2:20 AM

9156

OptionProbability

Joel Dommett

Amy Gledhill

Armando Iannucci

Kumail Nanjiani

Joanna Page

25

20

20

20

16

Will the president on January 21, 2029 be a white man?

Jun 12, 8:52 PMJan 22, 11:59 PM

84.7%chance

11148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

43

Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century?

Sep 28, 10:16 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

58.31%chance

4139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

Epic Universe theme park has over 10 million visitors in first year of operation (May 22, 2025 - May 21, 2026)

Feb 23, 1:43 PMMay 21, 12:00 AM

30.51%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

How many fractional Touhou games will be released before Touhou 21?

Oct 3, 5:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

461

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3+

44

29

16

11

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