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Prediction markets for 24

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

Oct 27, 5:21 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

10.16%chance

539709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2974

336

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.14%chance

599061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

735

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

374575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2936

341

Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?

Oct 18, 2:32 PMSep 26, 5:59 AM

5.14%chance

404538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3389

710

Will I hand in my Bachelor's Thesis at least 24 hours before the deadline?

Jan 31, 6:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.07%chance

82773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

654

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.32%chance

171389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

881

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.49%chance

15830

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

863

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

7294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

788

On September 24, 2025, will Meta Platforms' stock price be higher than on August 23, 2025?

Aug 14, 9:01 AMAug 22, 11:59 PM

48.88%chance

5102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Como VS Lazio Soccer Serie A Match Winner (24 Aug, 2025)

Aug 13, 2:17 PMAug 23, 11:59 PM

212

OptionProbability

Como

Lazio

Draw

38

33

29

Will South B street in downtown San Mateo still be pedestrian only 24 hours/day through 2026?

Jul 4, 3:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.86%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

63

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