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Top stories

Claudia Sheinbaum Criticizes 30-Day Apology Sanction on Karla Estrella, Responds to Ricardo Monreal’s Self-Funded Spain Vacation

Claudia Sheinbaum Criticizes 30-Day Apology Sanction on Karla Estrella, Responds to Ricardo Monreal’s Self-Funded Spain Vacation

Authors

11

12 days ago

Prediction markets for 4T

4THOT Stock (Permanent)

Oct 29, 1:37 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

9814012

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2063

1376

Will the price of a Costco hot dog Combo raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)

Dec 13, 5:56 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

9.67%chance

194126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

914

Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?

Oct 4, 3:06 PMJul 5, 6:59 AM

68.01%chance

342442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1498

617

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit?

Apr 19, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52289

OptionProbability

$3T to $3.5T

$1.5T or fewer

$1.5T to $2T

$2T to $2.5T

$2.5T to $3T

$3.5T to $4T

$4T to $4.5T

$4.5T to $5T

$5T to $5.5T

$5.5T or more

99

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?

Nov 22, 11:06 PMJul 5, 4:59 AM

92%chance

291629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

339

29

Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

Jun 14, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.54%chance

12762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?

Aug 11, 9:43 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

41%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Aug 11, 9:19 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

45.34%chance

12271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

971

Will President Trump extend the DOGE Executive Order Agenda past the July 4th, 2026 deadline?

Mar 10, 8:25 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

34.12%chance

685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will Gwern hit 4th base/a home run?

Jan 15, 10:49 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

64.22%chance

361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

101

4th Ashes Test 2025/26 Predictions (Boxing Day)

Aug 3, 9:48 AMDec 29, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Australia Win Toss

Australia Win Game

Winner by innings

Australia Bowl First

Smith 100

Cummins 5fa

Boland MOTM

Root 100

Draw

Tie

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

34

34

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent)

Jaron Brandon

Jeramy Young

Other

40

20

20

20

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