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Prediction markets for 500 Global

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.32%chance

149275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10137

9865

Relativity Space Fails by December 31, 2025

Nov 25, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.02%chance

53460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4365

231

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.67%chance

20637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

229

Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026

Jun 6, 2:38 PMJun 7, 3:59 AM

22%chance

14470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

961

Saudi NEOM project faces pause, downsizing, or lawsuit before 2026?

Jun 7, 3:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.88%chance

7330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

392

26

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.93%chance

6291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.47%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

970

🏢Which companies will fall off the Fortune 500 Global list in 10 years, at the end of 2034? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 15, 6:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3142

OptionProbability

Citigroup

Tesco

Siemens

UBS Group

Netflix

FedEx

Saudi Aramco

Proctor & Gamble

Inditex

Berkshire Hathaway

Apple

59

50

50

50

50

38

28

24

24

24

10

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

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