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Prediction markets for 500 Global

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

124630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

744

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026

Jun 6, 2:38 PMJun 7, 3:59 AM

17.65%chance

15720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

900

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

7549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1512

662

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.47%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

970

Will annual copper production from bio-leaching of primary sulfides exceed 10 kt by end of 2028?

Feb 9, 8:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

37.87%chance

8203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

681

432

Will gold exceed $7,000 USD per ounce before January 1 2027

Mar 18, 5:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.74%chance

9149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

🏢Which companies will fall off the Fortune 500 Global list in 10 years, at the end of 2034? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 15, 6:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3142

OptionProbability

Citigroup

Tesco

Siemens

UBS Group

Netflix

FedEx

Saudi Aramco

Proctor & Gamble

Inditex

Berkshire Hathaway

Apple

59

50

50

50

50

38

28

24

24

24

10

Will a major global food shortage occur by 2030, making it smart to invest in food manufacturers, farms, and agricultura

Mar 29, 4:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

5

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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