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Prediction markets for 500 Global

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.3%chance

587229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

2564

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.96%chance

91598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

904

Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026

Jun 6, 2:38 PMJun 7, 3:59 AM

17.65%chance

15720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

900

will mr beast will achive 500 million subscribers before 9/11

Mar 7, 8:53 AMSep 10, 11:59 PM

30%chance

8700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

83

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.63%chance

5463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1446

692

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.47%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

970

Will lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot prices exceed $6,500/tonne on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:09 PMMay 1, 6:08 PM

90.57%chance

2210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

310

32

When will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,500.00 in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

2190

OptionProbability

Before end of Jun 2026

Before end of Jul 2026

Before end of Aug 2026

Before end of Sep 2026

Before end of Oct 2026

Before end of Nov 2026

Before end of Dec 2026

Before end of May 2026

Before end of Mar 2026

Before end of Apr 2026

76

76

76

76

76

76

76

66

34

34

🏢Which companies will fall off the Fortune 500 Global list in 10 years, at the end of 2034? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 15, 6:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3142

OptionProbability

Citigroup

Tesco

Siemens

UBS Group

Netflix

FedEx

Saudi Aramco

Proctor & Gamble

Inditex

Berkshire Hathaway

Apple

59

50

50

50

50

38

28

24

24

24

10

Will annual copper production from bio-leaching of primary sulfides exceed 10 kt by end of 2028?

Feb 9, 8:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

31.78%chance

7123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

632

525

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