AA News

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70%chance

165100967

OptionVotes

YES

1634

294

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.89%chance

4216602

OptionVotes

YES

21156

4474

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Nov 16, 12:06 AMSep 18, 3:59 AM

349153

OptionProbability

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

[D] At least 10 markets resolve to YES.

100

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

132386

OptionVotes

YES

230

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.41%chance

5975

OptionVotes

YES

1975

506

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?

May 17, 2:55 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

11.25%chance

15469

OptionVotes

YES

281

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2028?

Sep 9, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.96%chance

6183

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

anthropic model release prop bets

Sep 23, 7:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Haiku 5.5 gets 35+ on AA

Fable 5.5 is released in 2026

sonnet 5.5 ranks worse than sonnet 5 on at least 1 benchmark in the system card

sonnet 5.5 become only accessable on paid plans

Sonnet 5.5 ranks above gpt 5.6 sol on terminal bench 4.0

claude hands out a weekly reset when they drop their new model

Sonnet 5.5 is released in September

sonnet or haiku 5.5 are dropped on a weekend

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.79%chance

163

OptionVotes

YES

163

aa

Feb 11, 8:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

239

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for AA

Prediction markets for AA

Prediction markets for AA

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2028?

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

anthropic model release prop bets

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

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