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By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

40.25%chance

12456216

OptionVotes

YES

1131

706

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Nov 16, 12:06 AMSep 18, 3:59 AM

309128

OptionProbability

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

[D] At least 10 markets resolve to YES.

100

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76163

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.26%chance

205181

OptionVotes

YES

12030

8331

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

132386

OptionVotes

YES

230

Will Apple AAPL acquire a company for > 10 billion by 2030

Feb 2, 5:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.02%chance

18454

OptionVotes

YES

1046

900

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

1450

690

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?

May 17, 2:55 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

12.81%chance

13375

OptionVotes

YES

261

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2028?

Sep 9, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.96%chance

6183

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.27%chance

5134

OptionVotes

YES

aa

Feb 11, 8:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

239

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for AA

Prediction markets for AA

Prediction markets for AA

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?

Will Apple AAPL acquire a company for > 10 billion by 2030

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2028?

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

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