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[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Nov 16, 12:06 AMSep 18, 3:59 AM

309128

OptionProbability

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

[D] At least 10 markets resolve to YES.

100

100

69

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

The next mainline 3D Mario game will cost $69+

Jan 9, 8:28 PMNov 11, 8:48 PM

94.82%chance

17980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

96

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released?

Jan 3, 1:52 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13690

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2025

Other

28

23

16

15

14

3

2

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1.6%chance

7578

OptionProbability

YES

NO

924

375

Will 'Beyond Good and Evil 2' release before 2026?

Mar 8, 3:55 PMJan 2, 12:30 PM

6.33%chance

5325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

417

27

Will an AAA-gamemaker create a video game/FPS of the Russia-Ukraine War by 2030? (eg Call of Duty Ukraine)

Oct 1, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.66%chance

10319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

953

Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?

May 17, 2:55 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

33.13%chance

9130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)

Apr 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.34%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will Peter Thiel become a featured NPC in a major AAA game title (like GTA 6) by 2027?

May 13, 10:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

Will Carl Bergstrom become fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) by 2050?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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