AAR News

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Aug 3, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

2610023

OptionProbability

2027 and beyond

2026

2025

2023

2024

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Mar 19, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

263103

OptionVotes

YES

1004

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Nov 27, 9:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.86%chance

14410

OptionVotes

YES

1160

961

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

Jun 11, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.24%chance

6132

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Aug 31, 1:54 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.95%chance

7112

OptionVotes

YES

1015

973

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 8:58 AM

32.95%chance

492

OptionVotes

YES

153

$AAROD 🏈

Dec 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.24%chance

334

OptionProbability

YES

330

275

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 4:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

AAR News

Prediction markets for AAR

Prediction markets for AAR

Prediction markets for AAR

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

$AAROD 🏈

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

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