AAR News

Aaron Rodgers signs with the Minnesota Vikings before the start of the 2025 NFL season

Mar 12, 6:21 PMSep 4, 12:00 AM

1.02%chance

129951

OptionVotes

YES

9852

102

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

This time next year, will Aarush have a girlfriend

Mar 26, 4:09 AMMar 26, 4:08 AM

23.59%chance

176325

OptionVotes

YES

180

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Nov 27, 9:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.86%chance

14410

OptionVotes

YES

1160

961

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?

Mar 21, 3:32 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

18.71%chance

4204

OptionVotes

YES

277

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026?

Nov 1, 5:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.26%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

253

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

Jun 11, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.24%chance

6132

OptionVotes

YES

122

$AAROD 🏈

Dec 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.24%chance

334

OptionProbability

YES

330

275

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

AAR News

Prediction markets for AAR

Prediction markets for AAR

Prediction markets for AAR

Aaron Rodgers signs with the Minnesota Vikings before the start of the 2025 NFL season

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

This time next year, will Aarush have a girlfriend

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Will there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026?

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

$AAROD 🏈

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

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