AAR News

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Oct 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

6982

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026?

Nov 1, 5:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.73%chance

7884

OptionVotes

YES

1003

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Nov 27, 9:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.86%chance

14410

OptionVotes

YES

1160

961

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

Jun 11, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.24%chance

6132

OptionVotes

YES

122

$AAROD 🏈

Dec 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.24%chance

334

OptionProbability

YES

330

275

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 4:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

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Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026?

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

$AAROD 🏈

Will Aaron Tucker have a babby by EOY 2030?

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