AAR News

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

Aug 3, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

257718

OptionProbability

2026

2027 and beyond

2025

2023

2024

This time next year, will Aarush have a girlfriend

Mar 26, 4:09 AMMar 26, 4:08 AM

6.85%chance

197076

OptionVotes

YES

369

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76163

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

231270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Nov 27, 9:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.86%chance

14410

OptionVotes

YES

1160

961

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

$AAROD 🏈

Dec 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.24%chance

334

OptionProbability

YES

330

275

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

AAR News

Prediction markets for AAR

Prediction markets for AAR

Prediction markets for AAR

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?

This time next year, will Aarush have a girlfriend

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

$AAROD 🏈

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

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