AAR News

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Nov 27, 9:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.86%chance

14410

OptionVotes

YES

1160

961

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?

Mar 21, 3:32 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

18.71%chance

4204

OptionVotes

YES

277

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 16, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

4143

OptionVotes

YES

169

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

Jun 11, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.24%chance

6132

OptionVotes

YES

122

$AAROD 🏈

Dec 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.24%chance

334

OptionProbability

YES

330

275

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

Now WildBrain buys Aardman in 2029

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Will there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Will Sam Aarons (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.

$AAROD 🏈

Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

Now WildBrain buys Aardman in 2029

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