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Prediction markets for ABB

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Mar 20, 3:17 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

161886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Who will become the next governor of Texas after Greg Abbott?

Jul 5, 10:34 PMJul 11, 8:59 PM

171637

OptionProbability

Other

Dan Patrick

Will Hurd

Eric Johnson

James Talarico

Dave Clark

Ken Paxton

69

11

7

4

4

3

3

Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028?

Jan 7, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

0.96%chance

71443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

103

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1092

887

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

11861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

951

Who will replace Mahmoud Abbas as President?

Dec 4, 3:51 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM

15701

OptionProbability

Other

Hussein Al-Sheikh

Marwan Barghouti

Mohammed Dahlan

Mohammad Shtayyeh

No one

57

11

9

8

8

6

Who will lead the Palestinian Authority after Mahmoud Abbas?

Feb 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10665

OptionProbability

Rawhi Fattouh

Other

Hussein al-Sheikh (currently secretary-general of the Executive Committee)

Mohammad Shtayyeh (current Prime Minister)

Marwan Barghouti (currently in prison)

Mohammed Dahlan (currently in exile in UAE)

Ismail Haniyeh (Current Hamas leader, in exile in Qatar)

46

25

12

7

6

3

1

Will Richard A. Gonzalez (CEO of AbbVie) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 2, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.35%chance

7187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

88

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Jul 14, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.63%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

49

Will Abbott Elementary end before Trump leaves office?

Nov 23, 7:44 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

56.38%chance

520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

'OS' computer abbreviation usually means ?

Oct 21, 10:24 AM

300

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