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Prediction markets for ABB

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Who will become the next governor of Texas after Greg Abbott?

Jul 5, 10:34 PMJul 11, 8:59 PM

202173

OptionProbability

Other

Gina Hinojosa

Will Hurd

Mayes Middleton

Dan Patrick

Eric Johnson

James Talarico

Dave Clark

Ken Paxton

42

21

12

9

6

3

3

2

2

Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028?

Jan 7, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

1.12%chance

81445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

105

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1092

887

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

959

Who will replace Mahmoud Abbas as President?

Dec 4, 3:51 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM

15701

OptionProbability

Other

Hussein Al-Sheikh

Marwan Barghouti

Mohammed Dahlan

Mohammad Shtayyeh

No one

57

11

9

8

8

6

Who will lead the Palestinian Authority after Mahmoud Abbas?

Feb 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10665

OptionProbability

Rawhi Fattouh

Other

Hussein al-Sheikh (currently secretary-general of the Executive Committee)

Mohammad Shtayyeh (current Prime Minister)

Marwan Barghouti (currently in prison)

Mohammed Dahlan (currently in exile in UAE)

Ismail Haniyeh (Current Hamas leader, in exile in Qatar)

46

25

12

7

6

3

1

Will Richard A. Gonzalez (CEO of AbbVie) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 2, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.35%chance

7187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

88

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Jul 14, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.08%chance

3120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Will Abbott Elementary end before Trump leaves office?

Nov 23, 7:44 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

56.38%chance

520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

'OS' computer abbreviation usually means ?

Oct 21, 10:24 AM

300

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