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Prediction markets for ABL

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.91%chance

420211292206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30267

16178

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.08%chance

502415253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3020

2138

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

319218651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

1260

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

359130811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.67%chance

18477249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2324

1593

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

25135143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2105

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.76%chance

11515166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1880

1102

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

87.53%chance

629802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2079

449

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

637877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

806

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.29%chance

271455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

406

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Jan 9, 9:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.81%chance

191060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

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