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Prediction markets for ABL

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.07%chance

436811858733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28324

16897

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45%chance

547460047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2923

2251

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.38%chance

345248426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

1304

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

372135389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

23364195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2697

587

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

25635829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

1968

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.01%chance

11615266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1763

1202

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

6411008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

906

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

165456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14919

6703

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Jan 9, 9:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.81%chance

191060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

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