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Prediction markets for ABR

Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be freed into the US at any point in 2025?

Apr 10, 11:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.69%chance

12053616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

665

Is Kilmar Abrego Garcia a member of MS-13? [resolves to poll]

Apr 20, 12:13 AMNov 9, 11:00 AM

4.79%chance

4316759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

446

22

Tanishq Abraham/ilovescience Stock (Permanent)

Jan 12, 7:14 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

213956

OptionProbability

NO

YES

747

142

U.S. implements residence-based taxation for Americans abroad by 2028

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

27.26%chance

71150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1683

662

Will JJ Abrams direct a movie in the 2020s?

Mar 31, 2:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.28%chance

16673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

807

Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be deported to El Salvador before 2029?

Jun 7, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

7640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1421

704

Will Poland use its M1 Abrams tanks in combat?

Aug 19, 11:16 AMApr 2, 9:59 PM

67.45%chance

15391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

44

Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2025?

Sep 11, 1:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.75%chance

7377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

24

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7370

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

Oxford, UK

Santiago, Chile

Madrid, Spain

Kyoto, Japan

Australia (mobile)

Washington, DC

Other

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

39

13

9

7

6

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Did white conservative women abruptly and dramatically become depressed/anxious?

Apr 29, 12:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.59%chance

7133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

57

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Will the newly-discovered Mexican tree alligators (Abronia cunemica) be declared extinct by the end of the year 2035?

Jan 7, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.85%chance

217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

98

71

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