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Top stories

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for ABS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.99%chance

461413839572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23958

18853

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

93.23%chance

27142541383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18671

932

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.72%chance

611543927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6315

663

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

375291744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2998

926

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.63%chance

399151007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9031

5995

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Jul 28, 1:15 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

68%chance

101136772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6113

4378

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.99%chance

7516436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12246

8166

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

59.54%chance

3215777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12130

8244

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.19%chance

169399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15576

6420

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

By what season will full ABS be implemented in the MLB?

Mar 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not by 2029

28

28

28

17

When will AB lose his V card?

Dec 23, 6:44 AMDec 23, 6:44 AM

319

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

59

56

52

50

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