ABS News
Top stories
Prediction markets for ABS
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44.71%chance
475814557093
OptionVotes
22541
18234
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
94.44%chance
27212587387
OptionVotes
20346
822
OptionProbability
2592
1904
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.9%chance
613548563
OptionVotes
5386
853
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
81.94%chance
391351512
OptionVotes
3411
823
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
22.95%chance
427168325
OptionVotes
12207
4763
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
92.07%chance
9050238
OptionVotes
34067
2935
Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?
Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.19%chance
169399
OptionVotes
15576
6420
California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?
Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.95%chance
377
OptionVotes
173
58
5x ABS(Day Change %(SPCX)) The 1st Market Day After 1st Ship Catch Attempt.
Sep 29, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.77%chance
557
OptionVotes
1025
976
OptionProbability
28
28
28
17
OptionProbability
59
56
52
50