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Top stories

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Authors

16

8 months ago

Prediction markets for ABS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

442912024119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30183

16209

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.35%chance

26712400780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15259

1250

Aba Stock

Oct 29, 3:33 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

29551182066

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2569

1988

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.5%chance

553464228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2901

2279

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

351261778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1913

1396

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.03%chance

384144778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7726

6753

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.52%chance

639493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11868

8426

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

209446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10015

9985

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.43%chance

165656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15119

6614

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

By what season will full ABS be implemented in the MLB?

Mar 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not by 2029

28

28

28

17

When will AB lose his V card?

Dec 23, 6:44 AMDec 23, 6:44 AM

110

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

66

50

50

50

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