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Prediction markets for Access Daily

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

183364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3621

276

Will artificial intelligence change everyday life more than the internet did

Jun 5, 5:38 AMAug 23, 10:59 PM

37.29%chance

17393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.

Jun 23, 7:54 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

6315

OptionProbability

Meta will launch a standalone prediction market app by end of 2026

Meta's prediction market platform will flop.

Meta will integrate prediction markets into Facebook or Instagram

69

53

47

Will manifold add any kind of confirmation screen to the loan button by end of 2026

Jan 27, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.12%chance

2202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

73

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

60.53%chance

371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

How many days in July 2026 will the Claude Status Page report an incident for core systems?

Jun 16, 7:57 PMJul 31, 8:59 PM

323

OptionProbability

18 - 19

16 - 17

0 - 15

20 - 31

34

31

18

18

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.65%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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