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Prediction markets for Access Daily

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

183364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3621

276

Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in May 2026?

Apr 3, 9:37 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

10380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

191

Will manifold add any kind of confirmation screen to the loan button by end of 2026

Jan 27, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.12%chance

2202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

2101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

75

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

33.6%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

90

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.65%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

98

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

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