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Prediction markets for Access Daily

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.26%chance

2112589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14072

3617

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.08%chance

193366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3623

276

Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.

Jun 23, 7:54 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

7345

OptionProbability

Meta will launch a standalone prediction market app by end of 2026

Meta's prediction market platform will flop.

Meta will integrate prediction markets into Facebook or Instagram

70

51

49

Will Furnace Creek, Death Valley record a high temperature of at least 129.0°F by September 28, 2026 (9/28/26)?

Jun 13, 8:04 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

35.56%chance

10157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

37.72%chance

5139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

96

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.07%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

82

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.12%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

86

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.5%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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