Access Holdings News

YES

YES

NO

YES

Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11

Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State

Be a man (cis or trans)

Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)

Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature

Be considered broadly left-wing in their country

Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent

Have been married

Have been in custody

Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area

Rule an African country

Rule a country with same-sex marriage

Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation

Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime

Come to power as the result of a coup

Be out as LGBTQIA+

Exists before start of 2035

Exists before start of 2030

Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer

Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Is judged to have caused a minor cybersecurity incident at least as bad as the wiki messageboard before start of 2029

Exists before start of 2028

conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI

Is judged to have caused a major cybersecurity incident at least as bad as the huggingface hack before start of 2029

Makes money mostly legally for the first 2 months (even accounting for illegal agents probably being hidden)

Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do

A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved

Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Single person

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2028

YES

YES

NO

NO