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Prediction markets for Access Protocol

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Which countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?

Jan 12, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5920

OptionProbability

Costa Rica

Uruguay

Philippines

Indonesia

Ecuador

Ukraine

Thailand

China

Taiwan

South Korea

87

69

42

37

31

20

20

18

18

18

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

90.1%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

49

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.07%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

82

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will combined CoreWeave+Lambda+Crusoe 2026 revenue exceed $10B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

59.24%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.5%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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