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Prediction markets for Access Protocol

What will the dominant social media protocol be at the end of 2028?

Apr 29, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

351627

OptionProbability

AT protocol (Bluesky)

ActivityPub (Mastodon)

Other

Other, not launched before 2024

Forums and/or BBSes make a huge comeback

Other, launched before 2024

Threads

Farcaster

Nostr

Bluesky

Hive (hive.blog)

Mana-channel (Manifold, if we ever do it)

cohost

Discord

Tumblr

RSS

85

7

4

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

34

Which countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?

Jan 12, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3130

OptionProbability

Costa Rica

Philippines

Ecuador

Uruguay

Ukraine

Indonesia

South Korea

Thailand

China

Taiwan

72

69

50

50

50

50

50

50

45

45

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

2101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

75

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

33.6%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

90

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.65%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

98

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