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Prediction markets for Access Service Providers

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.88%chance

233352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3420

292

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.38%chance

242326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

62087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

324

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Mar 14, 2:50 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.56%chance

181625

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

58

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.3%chance

231152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

20

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2369

OptionProbability

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

On or Before April 30, 2026

44

36

17

2

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will the complaint filed against YouTube for "illegal deployment of adblock detection technologies" succeed?

Oct 26, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.55%chance

13147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

162

Will any UK nation require a register or mandatory disclosure of trans status by EOY 2035?

Sep 7, 6:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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