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Prediction markets for Access Service Providers

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Mar 14, 2:50 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

62.76%chance

131555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96%chance

221132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.2%chance

11274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2166

OptionProbability

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

On or Before April 30, 2026

72

13

11

3

A public 2026 Dutch government cyberbreach will happen in ... ?

Dec 27, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3124

OptionProbability

Q1 - January, February, March 2026

Q2 - April, May, June 2026

Q3 - July, August, September 2026

Q4 - October, November, December 2026

100

34

34

34

Will the complaint filed against YouTube for "illegal deployment of adblock detection technologies" succeed?

Oct 26, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.48%chance

9118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

156

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