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Accession News

Will X.com be accessible in the UK on 30th June?

Jan 11, 8:02 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

97.22%chance

259984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5676

89

Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?

Jun 13, 1:40 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

60.71%chance

355736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

805

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.11%chance

234441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10009

9973

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

24.92%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1251

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Mar 19, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

13436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Mar 18, 4:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

55%chance

15381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

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