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Accession News

Will the next OpenAI model have a stupid fucking name? [Must be plus-tier accessible]

Jun 4, 4:31 PMSep 25, 4:30 PM

20.15%chance

25866421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025

Nov 22, 4:05 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70.24%chance

17464772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14915

7159

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

May 21, 6:12 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

31.26%chance

669220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

before 2026, will Telegram have given any government access to private messages of its users?

Aug 25, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.81%chance

282258

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

837

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.82%chance

17695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

899

There will be no restrictions on Chinese citizens ability to access education or healthcare in any city with more than 10 million people based on rural Hukou by the end of 2025

Sep 8, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.88%chance

14518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

958

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

45%chance

8343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

1915

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Mar 18, 4:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

54.28%chance

10212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

918

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