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Prediction markets for ACCO

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

7247679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

611

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.99%chance

8230866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

974

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

48%chance

10319010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

142

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

118384

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

40

39

30

25

21

19

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

58.63%chance

194930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13560

7375

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

773829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

959

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Oct 21, 4:37 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

79.02%chance

301418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2033

883

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Liberal Democracy

Electoral Democracy

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

25

25

25

25

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