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Prediction markets for ACCO

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

7348120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

607

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.15%chance

8331058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

1028

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

48%chance

10319010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

1142

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

39.95%chance

1412824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12260

8157

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

57.56%chance

225089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

859

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

773829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

959

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

67.55%chance

221654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

770

Will Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by January 1 2028?

Sep 21, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.41%chance

9627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

757

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.73%chance

18430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

1002

Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?

Jul 1, 5:47 AMJun 30, 4:00 PM

52.06%chance

7204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

960

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