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Prediction markets for ACCO

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

Jan 22, 4:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.57%chance

58187127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44937

7944

[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.17%chance

530172037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC?

Jan 2, 3:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75131618

OptionProbability

Under 101 cases

101 - 1000 cases

1001 - 10,000 cases

10,001 - 100,000 cases

100,001 - 1,000,000 cases

1,000,001 - 10,000,000 cases

Other

96

2

0

0

0

0

0

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.39%chance

3376158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54440

6835

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Jan 22, 8:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.04%chance

6545061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31568

2826

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

50%chance

10218654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

149

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

8.25%chance

308483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

147

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

How democratic will Syria be in 2027, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Liberal Democracy

Electoral Democracy

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

25

25

25

25

By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?

Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

April-June 2025

July-September 2025

October-December 2025

January-March 2026

25

25

25

25

How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Liberal Democracy

Electoral Democracy

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

25

25

25

25

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