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Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

7247701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1598

619

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.15%chance

8331058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

1028

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

45.02%chance

1311428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

9049

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

Aug 13, 7:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.42%chance

3810099

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7781

6334

Will I regret not using an anonymous account on Manifold by end of 2030?

Jan 10, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.34%chance

242552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

642

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.22%chance

312176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

638

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.74%chance

331555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

863

Will Manifold support trading from fediverse accounts by 2030?

Nov 1, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.63%chance

171228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

461

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.24%chance

11554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

889

Will Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by January 1 2028?

Sep 21, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.13%chance

9527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

819

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

May 20, 1:17 AMMay 18, 12:00 AM

63.18%chance

4511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

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