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Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.92%chance

7145729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

636

Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.01%chance

7230005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3204

720

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.88%chance

8028756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

1056

Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Jan 4, 5:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.57%chance

447638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

580

Is this post from SBF's X account posted by SBF himself?

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.1%chance

63109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1495

669

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.68%chance

302169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1494

631

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.32%chance

311155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

890

Will Manifold support trading from fediverse accounts by 2030?

Nov 1, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.93%chance

15774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

615

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 200 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 3:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.25%chance

16326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

918

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 400 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.96%chance

14273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

926

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

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