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Prediction markets for Accountable

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

7147619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

588

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13560

7375

Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?

Jun 11, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

143165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

131

Will I regret not using an anonymous account on Manifold by end of 2030?

Jan 10, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.57%chance

242502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2660

647

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.22%chance

312176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

638

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.85%chance

331255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

980

Will Manifold support trading from fediverse accounts by 2030?

Nov 1, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.93%chance

15774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

615

Is Sam Altman behind Jimmy Apples account ?

Dec 20, 10:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.04%chance

18768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

943

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 11:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.61%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

747

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