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Prediction markets for ACH

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.65%chance

415213145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16507

7941

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

2724766

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

88

11

0

0

0

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

Aug 4, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.95%chance

9218726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

912

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90%chance

5613141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

446

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

78.89%chance

412329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19863

4175

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Jan 18, 10:36 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

36.07%chance

11511912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

979

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

379

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.09%chance

629496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

812

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

111

Will a human land on mars before ASI is achieved

Mar 28, 11:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

45%chance

21767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

907

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