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Prediction markets for ACH

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.22%chance

270269974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5677

4517

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

9038240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

67.77%chance

15037943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10179

9344

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90%chance

5613141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

446

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Jan 18, 10:36 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

40%chance

11511810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

874

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.09%chance

629496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

812

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.67%chance

456069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

919

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

155970

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

70 - 79%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

50

30

18

1

1

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

46.44%chance

461858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

101

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