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Prediction markets for ACH

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

239238329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5784

4452

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Jan 3, 12:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.31%chance

20143918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3854

259

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

6239747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32582

1375

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2235068

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

<0.8

35

22

19

11

8

5

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 7:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.53%chance

3616196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10009

9931

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Jan 9, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.27%chance

6716102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

873

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

15%chance

307794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2286

457

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.47%chance

177227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2427

402

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

50.74%chance

421678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

115

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