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Prediction markets for ACH

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.79%chance

255259969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5157

4769

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.6%chance

6864891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46861

749

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Jan 3, 12:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.05%chance

21247390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5639

177

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 7:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.13%chance

4844799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32745

4994

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

9042786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2336318

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

<0.8

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

33

19

17

15

10

6

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.85%chance

6617807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10162

9359

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.09%chance

629496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

812

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

34.93%chance

451828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

71

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