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Prediction markets for ACK

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1723095

OptionProbability

70 - 79.99%

80 - 89.99%

60 - 69.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

90 - 100%

20 - 29.99%

30 - 39.99%

10 - 19.99%

24

22

21

16

8

8

1

1

0

Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?

Jan 27, 7:32 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM

2.64%chance

156675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6078

165

Will a Son of Xi Jingping claim power or be publicly acknowledged as a successor by mid 2026

Jan 29, 3:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5%chance

125744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4359

229

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432067

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

39

28

12

9

8

3

Stanford Medical School Graduation Ceremony includes Land acknowledgement, 2029

Feb 25, 11:38 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

31.28%chance

161561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

756

Bill Ackman stock

Apr 9, 9:58 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

241541

OptionProbability

YES

NO

384

359

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM

4500

OptionProbability

Jan 1st 2050

Jan 1st 2030

Jan 1st 2028

Jan 1st 2029

Jan 1st 2027

Jan 1st 2026

40

26

20

20

9

3

What is the first input for which the Busy Beaver function exceeds the Ackermann function?

Jan 31, 5:13 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

20.31%chance

6425

OptionProbability

YES

NO

550

245

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

17

15

14

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055

Jun 29, 10:37 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

26.85%chance

7136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

133

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Feb 21, 3:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.47%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

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