ACRED News

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.76%chance

18513318

OptionVotes

YES

3064

2121

Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?

Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

152901

OptionVotes

YES

1420

704

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

201289

OptionVotes

YES

1647

825

What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?

Jan 14, 8:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23783

OptionProbability

Colossal Biosciences goes out of business without officially canceling the project

Colossal Biosciences announces they are canceling the project

giving "birth" to a living woolly mammoth*

mammoth living to >1 years of age

creation of a functional artificial womb

breeding pair of mammoths*

growing an elephant or mammoth* fetus in an artificial womb

releasing a mammoth* into the wild, or a preserve larger than a few acres

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.39%chance

12762

OptionVotes

YES

1015

990

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

1614

620

Will more acres burn in California in 2026 than 2025

Oct 28, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.65%chance

12623

OptionVotes

YES

172

If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?

Nov 22, 9:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.26%chance

13484

OptionVotes

YES

1353

854

Will Central Park lose an acre of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

Apr 20, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.14%chance

10205

OptionVotes

YES

289

205

Will Central Park lose 5 acres of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

Apr 20, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.33%chance

10185

OptionVotes

YES

402

193

>1k acres of public lands south of San Mateo County [eg Rancho Corral de Tierra] turned into private land btwn [2025-8]?

Nov 12, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will Esmeralda Land Company have >500 acres of land by EoY 2030

Oct 19, 5:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

210

OptionVotes

YES

110

ACRED News

Prediction markets for ACRED

Prediction markets for ACRED

Prediction markets for ACRED

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Will more acres burn in California in 2026 than 2025

If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?

Will Central Park lose an acre of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

Will Central Park lose 5 acres of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

>1k acres of public lands south of San Mateo County [eg Rancho Corral de Tierra] turned into private land btwn [2025-8]?

Will Esmeralda Land Company have >500 acres of land by EoY 2030

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