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Prediction markets for Across
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.76%chance
18513318
OptionVotes
3064
2121
Will it be possible to search for text across ALL YouTube videos by 2026?
Mar 9, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38.3%chance
155033
OptionVotes
1123
890
Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Jul 5, 9:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
74.65%chance
294135
OptionVotes
1766
500
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM
33.16%chance
152901
OptionVotes
1420
704
Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.74%chance
201289
OptionVotes
1647
825
In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
Jan 28, 2:49 AMJan 28, 5:59 AM
65.03%chance
271259
OptionVotes
1124
916
Will @EliezerYudkowsky profit on net across all #superconductivity markets?
Aug 9, 11:49 PMFeb 1, 12:59 PM
75.45%chance
151123
OptionVotes
1373
767
Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?
Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.39%chance
12762
OptionVotes
1015
990
Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?
Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.75%chance
5670
OptionVotes
1614
620
If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?
Nov 22, 9:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
76.26%chance
13484
OptionVotes
1353
854
Bridge built across the Strait of Gibraltar connecting Europe to Africa through 2040
Aug 28, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
11.49%chance
6281
OptionVotes
338
65
Will Bryan Johnson have a Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio lower than that of Mike Lustgarten, averaged across 3 tests?
Aug 7, 11:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
61%chance
013
OptionVotes
63
40