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Top stories

Apollo Insurer Warns Regulators of Conflict Risks at PE-Backed Rivals

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for ACS

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

6%chance

1271807403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3961

253

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

401281850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15578

2885

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.16%chance

4344500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128439

102675

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

81.82%chance

824290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21552

3763

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

18914872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3617

1599

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

39.95%chance

1412824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12260

8157

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.2%chance

2910792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

5454

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.98%chance

296245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14805

8406

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

61.66%chance

183552

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11364

9035

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

Aces Stock (ACS)

Jan 29, 8:44 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

277

OptionProbability

NO

YES

133

41

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