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Top stories

Apollo Insurer Warns Regulators of Conflict Risks at PE-Backed Rivals

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for ACS

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9.38%chance

1252757081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3110

322

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.28%chance

385252072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6692

4439

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.65%chance

415213145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16507

7941

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

4954766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6434

3382

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13402

7535

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

78.89%chance

412329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19863

4175

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

2910463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108504

104617

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.19%chance

64592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13570

7369

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.11%chance

234441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10009

9973

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

294095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12773

8970

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.42%chance

171802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10297

9614

Aces Stock (ACS)

Jan 29, 8:44 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

277

OptionProbability

NO

YES

133

41

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