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Prediction markets for Act

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

63

36

1

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.46%chance

1910420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17436

7002

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

39.14%chance

9610404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

939

Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.2%chance

153907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3529

1289

Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?

May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM

67.04%chance

303185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2582

1615

Will the University of California consider SAT or ACT scores in admissions by the end of 2026?

Dec 16, 3:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.33%chance

72047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

935

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

55.52%chance

6275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

895

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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