OptionProbability
Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
Evan permabanned from Manifold
Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"
Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.
Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations
Charlie Kirk dies
Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
South Park does an episode that alludes to it
Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026
Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US
Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"
Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.
At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments
A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.
Another political assassination (either side)
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.
Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.
Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.
Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting
Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.
"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals
South Park episode canceled (not delayed)
Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.
arson attack against gender clinic
BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson
80s-style moral panic over furries
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.
Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down
A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.
Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled
Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol
Information reward money paid
high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated
At least one furry convention canceled
Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination
TPUSA supports a gun control bill
Any Democratic politician is arrested
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad
Any news organization is shut down
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
South Park canceled
NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired
"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns
Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law
Kash Patel fired
At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.
National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)
Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025
Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.
Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store
America becomes a one-party GOP state.
5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12
Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
90
75
72
70
59
53
45
44
42
37
35
34
34
32
32
28
24
24
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
20
18
17
16
15
15
15
15
12
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
7
5
5
4
4
0
0
0
