OptionProbability
Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
Evan permabanned from Manifold
Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025
Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"
Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.
Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations
Charlie Kirk dies
Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026
South Park does an episode that alludes to it
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
Another political assassination (either side)
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.
Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.
Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting
South Park episode canceled (not delayed)
BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.
The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.
Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.
"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals
Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.
Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol
Information reward money paid
high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated
Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down
Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad
arson attack against gender clinic
At least one furry convention canceled
Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination
At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments
TPUSA supports a gun control bill
Any Democratic politician is arrested
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"
Any news organization is shut down
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.
A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed
80s-style moral panic over furries
Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.
NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired
"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns
Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.
Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US
Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law
At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.
Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.
National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)
Kash Patel fired
South Park canceled
Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store
America becomes a one-party GOP state.
5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12
Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)
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