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Activant News

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.54%chance

142101373

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1445

1233

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9982208

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

30

9

4

2

1

1

Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027

Jan 1, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5025398

OptionProbability

At least 2,000

At least 5,000

At least 10,000

At least 20,000

91

53

17

13

How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?

May 2, 5:37 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3516734

OptionProbability

Below normal (2.53 < ACE < 73)

Near-normal ( 73 < ACE < 126.1)

Above normal (126.1 < ACE < 159.6)

Record low (ACE < 2.53)

Hyperactive (ACE > 159.6)

Record high (ACE > 258.47)

86

10

2

1

1

0

How many active mana traders will Manifold have (7 day average) at the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2514519

OptionProbability

Above 800

Above 1000

Above 1200

Above 1400

Above 1600

Above 1800

40

21

15

12

7

5

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

543879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

387

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

40.58%chance

673057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

932

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.76%chance

201911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

581

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.56%chance

9295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

109

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