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Prediction markets for Activant

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.58%chance

141101372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1447

1232

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9075533

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

52

15

4

3

1

1

Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027

Jan 1, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4619185

OptionProbability

At least 2,000

At least 5,000

At least 10,000

At least 20,000

91

73

35

23

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.48%chance

533590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2585

438

How many active mana traders will Manifold have (7 day average) at the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

173318

OptionProbability

Above 800

Above 1000

Above 1200

Above 1400

Above 1600

Above 1800

94

53

36

30

22

15

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

45.3%chance

622817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

827

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

812

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.16%chance

8294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

110

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Aug 2, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.25%chance

7186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

19

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