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Prediction markets for Activant

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

54.98%chance

142102144

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1398

1270

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9988222

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

43

5

4

2

2

1

How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?

May 2, 5:37 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3735452

OptionProbability

Below normal (2.53 < ACE < 73)

Near-normal ( 73 < ACE < 126.1)

Record low (ACE < 2.53)

Above normal (126.1 < ACE < 159.6)

Hyperactive (ACE > 159.6)

Record high (ACE > 258.47)

98

1

0

0

0

0

Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027

Jan 1, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5031098

OptionProbability

At least 2,000

At least 5,000

At least 10,000

At least 20,000

90

38

10

6

How many active mana traders will Manifold have (7 day average) at the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2518684

OptionProbability

Above 800

Above 1000

Above 1200

Above 1400

Above 1600

Above 1800

56

21

13

11

4

3

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

543879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

387

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.68%chance

723580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

959

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.24%chance

212171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1340

746

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.56%chance

9295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

109

Who will be actively engaged in major leadership capacity in Project Meridian on 1st November 2028? DoD/DoW

Oct 3, 2:04 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Newt Gingrich

Palmer Luckey

Elon Musk

50

50

50

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