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Prediction markets for Activate Capital

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

383933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

27

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

476

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

111162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will Trump change the name of D.C. from "District of Columbia" to "Dark Carnival" in his second term?

Jan 31, 10:35 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1.05%chance

71109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

10

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.51%chance

16728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Zelenskyy dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.5%chance

9253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45%chance

4230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Who Hasbro buys Sanrio on 2030 only

Feb 10, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.22%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

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