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Prediction markets for Activate Capital

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

281

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

231270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24%chance

161269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will Trump change the name of D.C. from "District of Columbia" to "Dark Carnival" in his second term?

Jan 31, 10:35 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1.05%chance

71109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

10

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Mar 18, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.03%chance

10297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

66

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

Zelenskyy dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.07%chance

8241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.13%chance

4227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Which Bittensor subnet from SN65–SN128 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 11:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2112

OptionProbability

SN97

SN75

SN65

SN66

SN67

SN68

SN69

SN70

SN71

SN72

SN73

SN74

SN76

SN77

SN78

SN79

SN80

SN81

SN82

SN83

SN84

SN85

SN86

SN87

SN88

SN89

SN90

SN91

SN92

SN93

SN94

SN95

SN96

SN98

SN99

SN100

SN101

SN102

SN103

SN104

SN105

SN106

SN107

SN108

SN109

SN110

SN111

SN112

SN113

SN114

SN115

SN116

SN117

SN118

SN119

SN120

SN121

SN122

SN123

SN124

SN125

SN126

SN127

SN128

15

14

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Who Hasbro buys Sanrio on 2030 only

Feb 10, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.22%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

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