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Prediction markets for Active Partners

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

281

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

151342

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Mclaren

Ferrari

Redbull racing

Aston Martin

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

69

18

9

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

8548

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Madrid, Spain

Oxford, UK

Kyoto, Japan

Santiago, Chile

Washington, DC

Other

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

64

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.36%chance

11312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.71%chance

5262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

I find a female partner/companion in 2026?

Dec 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.55%chance

9209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.6%chance

9151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.46%chance

241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

116

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