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Prediction markets for Active Partners

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

9.41%chance

4323210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30927

3084

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7526

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Oxford, UK

Madrid, Spain

Santiago, Chile

Kyoto, Japan

Washington, DC

Other

Berlin, Germany

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

72

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

7439

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Aston Martin

Mclaren

Ferrari

Redbull racing

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

27

25

21

10

6

2

2

2

2

2

2

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.36%chance

11312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

19.84%chance

13256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

I find a female partner/companion in 2026?

Dec 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.74%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.09%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

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