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Prediction markets for Active Partners

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.68%chance

117430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8928

3471

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

226803

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Redbull racing

Ferrari

Mclaren

Aston Martin

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Sun get a girlfriend before October 12, 2027?

Oct 16, 8:01 PMOct 11, 3:00 PM

28.09%chance

383511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5453

4042

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Klingbeil steps down as SPD leader before the end of 2026

Aug 23, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.36%chance

10802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

756

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

8548

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Madrid, Spain

Oxford, UK

Kyoto, Japan

Santiago, Chile

Washington, DC

Other

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

64

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.41%chance

14439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.62%chance

13417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

I find a female partner/companion in 2026?

Dec 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.55%chance

9209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Which Xbox franchises will get a newly announced film or TV adaptation before 2028?

Oct 26, 12:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4177

OptionProbability

Overwatch

The Elder Scrolls

Sea of Thieves

Warcraft

StarCraft

Crash Bandicoot

Spyro

Banjo-Kazooie

Doom

Forza

Age of Empires

Starfield

75

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

17

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

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