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Prediction markets for Active Partners

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

46.76%chance

202135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10868

9165

When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?

Feb 12, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

241204

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

<2028

<2027

<2026

<2025

88

76

62

58

48

32

5

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7370

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

Oxford, UK

Santiago, Chile

Madrid, Spain

Kyoto, Japan

Australia (mobile)

Washington, DC

Other

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

39

13

9

7

6

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.46%chance

10292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2026)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

64.6%chance

562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

98

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

Will the 1Day Sooner Safe Air Research Alliance be active in 2025?

Nov 11, 3:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

53

Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.75%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

140

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