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7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

141054

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Ferrari

Redbull racing

Mclaren

Aston Martin

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

71

12

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7526

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Oxford, UK

Madrid, Spain

Santiago, Chile

Kyoto, Japan

Washington, DC

Other

Berlin, Germany

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

72

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.36%chance

11312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

19.84%chance

13256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

I find a female partner/companion in 2026?

Dec 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.74%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.46%chance

241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

116

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