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Prediction markets for Active Partners

Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMAug 1, 10:29 AM

6.86%chance

10512210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

27

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

175781

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Ferrari

Mclaren

Redbull racing

Aston Martin

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

81

13

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

8548

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Madrid, Spain

Oxford, UK

Kyoto, Japan

Santiago, Chile

Washington, DC

Other

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

64

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.41%chance

14439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.88%chance

6274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

I find a female partner/companion in 2026?

Dec 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.55%chance

9209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.6%chance

9151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

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