Actively AI News

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

11390

5011

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.61%chance

9391489

OptionVotes

YES

88977

36167

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.81%chance

7114963

OptionVotes

YES

14853

6733

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.68%chance

723580

OptionVotes

YES

1031

959

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

632931

OptionProbability

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

YES

1221

865

Internationally active financial institution experiences AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses >$1B before 2028?

Oct 13, 10:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.28%chance

13620

OptionVotes

YES

208

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

1055

948

Will AI companion apps surpass dating apps in average daily active U.S. users by the end of 2027?

Dec 21, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.18%chance

17324

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

YES

994

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

Feb 28, 1:44 AMFeb 28, 1:43 AM

381

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2031

Before Dec 2028

Before Dec 2029

Before Dec 2030

Before Jan 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Dec 2026

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

Apr 21, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

157

112

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Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Q-Day before 2030?

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Internationally active financial institution experiences AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses >$1B before 2028?

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

Will AI companion apps surpass dating apps in average daily active U.S. users by the end of 2027?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031)

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