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Prediction markets for Activity

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8568735

If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?

May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM

2530231

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

523090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2082

563

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.12%chance

181620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1889

529

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.42%chance

291126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

808

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

By what year will 1B+ people be active in the Metaverse

Nov 6, 6:57 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

45%chance

14461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1155

765

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36%chance

8244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

113

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

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