OptionProbability
Coding agents will close the loop
Coding agents will flip the initiative
“Live learning” will be standard
The multi-agent paradigm will win
The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important
Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market
xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality
79
72
67
63
56
49
30
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1372
729
By 2026-01-01
By 2024-04-01
By 2024-07-01
By 2024-10-01
By 2025-01-01
2
0
171
58
409
180
339
178
Centaur Orbiter and Lander
Ceres Sample Return
Comet surface sample return
Saturn probe
Enceladus multiple flyby
Io Observer
Lunar Geophysical Network
Titan orbiter
Venus In Situ Explorer
Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return
22
21
12
7
