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Prediction markets for Adaptive AI

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

105109530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3227

670

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.42%chance

7521770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

900

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

8021031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

843

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

648021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

920

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.58%chance

647343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

943

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Digital games in 2035 will mostly be...?

Mar 11, 5:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

311187

OptionProbability

Adaptive through AI-driven storytelling

Cloud based

VR or AR

Including blockchain

42

30

20

9

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.61%chance

5770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1670

599

By the end of 2027, will a majority of people use software or AI software to do their tax?

Mar 4, 2:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.66%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

906

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