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Prediction markets for Adaptive AI

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.46%chance

9394808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

825

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.09%chance

6820483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1626

770

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.42%chance

7118912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

782

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.4%chance

617504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

818

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.33%chance

556703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

784

Will the Aikido MLB model be adapted by Silver Bulletin by April 2026?

Aug 20, 9:42 PMApr 16, 3:59 AM

2.22%chance

96033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

151

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

32

23

21

8

8

5

3

0

Digital games in 2035 will mostly be...?

Mar 11, 5:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

311187

OptionProbability

Adaptive through AI-driven storytelling

Cloud based

VR or AR

Including blockchain

42

30

20

9

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62%chance

12753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

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