Adaptive Computer News

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Sep 20, 7:25 PMJan 27, 7:59 AM

9.49%chance

287110

OptionVotes

YES

2403

670

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

If AI doesn't destroy humanity, what proportion of future value (relative to 2023 EAs' CEV) will be attained?

Mar 29, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

8326

OptionVotes

YES

313

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

Adaptive Computer News

Prediction markets for Adaptive Computer

Prediction markets for Adaptive Computer

Prediction markets for Adaptive Computer

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

If AI doesn't destroy humanity, what proportion of future value (relative to 2023 EAs' CEV) will be attained?

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

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