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Top stories

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for ADDI

By end of 2025, will addiction to AI-generated content be a thing?

May 10, 8:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.51%chance

413967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

979

826

Will AI Addiction be recognized and as common as video game addiction by 2026?

Jan 21, 4:54 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

20.36%chance

443517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

706

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

Nov 28, 1:25 PMJun 23, 9:59 PM

63318

OptionProbability

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

Watch Huberman podcast: https://youtu.be/uXs-zPc63kM

71

65

50

50

50

31

Will the new Tesla Roadster have rockets providing propulsion (not extra grip) for additional acceleration?

Apr 1, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

203260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2414

498

What will be the next capital city to be occupied by a foreign military?

Oct 8, 12:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

451538

OptionProbability

Yemen: Sana’a

Other

Fiji: Suva

Taiwan: Taipei

Estonia: Tallinn

Moldova: Chișinău

Rwanda: Kigali

Ramallah

Kiev

Armenia: Yerevan

Belarus: Minsk

Lithuania: Vilnius

Latvia: Riga

Haiti: Port-au-Prince

USA: Washington DC

Russia: Moscow

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa

DRC: Kinshasa

Georgia: Tbilisi

Iraq: Baghdad

Venezuela: Caracas

Afghanistan: Kabul

Myanmar: Naypyidaw

North Korea: Pyongyang

Iran: Tehran

Nicaragua: Managua

Warsaw, Poland

Beirut, Lebanon

Jerusalem

Eritrea: Asmara

Syria: Damascus

Somalia: Mogadishu

South Sudan: Juba

Khartoum, Sudan

Niger: Niamey

71

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88%chance

531090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

923

Will any additional major section of the White House be demolished in 2026?

Oct 24, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.6%chance

12426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Significant AI companion addiction by 2027?

May 18, 5:17 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

91%chance

25425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

318

31

Will the minimum global corporate tax of 15% be able to end tax competition and raise additional sizeable revenue?

Jan 5, 2:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.71%chance

15380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

957

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

Additional withdrawal notifications to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court before the end of the decade

May 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

2.2%chance

6234

OptionProbability

NO

YES

492

362

By the end of 2050, will I believe that substantial additional evidence supports the existence of Bigfoot?

Oct 20, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.3%chance

8197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

120

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