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Prediction markets for Addition

Will the new Tesla Roadster have rockets providing propulsion (not extra grip) for additional acceleration?

Apr 1, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

203260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2414

498

Will any additional major section of the White House be demolished in 2026?

Oct 24, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

12526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

32

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 1.2 GWh by Dec 2026?

Feb 10, 9:31 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

31.38%chance

5331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Will a junk/fast food company use engineered additives to mitigate the effects of GLP-1 agonists (Ozempic)?

Feb 11, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.26%chance

10329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 11.0 GWh by Sep 2028?

Feb 10, 9:36 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

67.64%chance

3232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will additional countries announce they are leaving the anti-landmine Ottawa Treaty by mid-2026?

Jun 30, 1:22 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

31.43%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

10-digit addition transformer race

Feb 25, 7:19 PMMar 31, 6:16 PM

2209

OptionProbability

sub-100 param hand-coded submission before March

sub-100 param hand-coded submission before April

sub-050 param hand-coded submission before March

sub-050 param hand-coded submission before April

sub-075 param hand-coded submission before March

sub-075 param hand-coded submission before April

sub-300 param trained submission before March

sub-200 param trained submission before April

sub-30 param hand-coded submission before April

100

100

100

100

100

100

66

50

50

Open-source tools useful addition to Dante's-Labs reports?

Jun 29, 7:06 PMJun 1, 6:40 PM

53.64%chance

7198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 1.8 GWh by Mar 2027?

Feb 10, 9:32 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

36.12%chance

3144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 21.0 GWh by Dec 2029?

Feb 10, 9:41 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

60.85%chance

293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 31.0 GWh by Mar 2031?

Feb 10, 9:46 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

66.51%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

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