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Prediction markets for ADES

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against pancreatic adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19%chance

7784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

424

341

Will Adele's next album title be a number?

Feb 12, 9:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.23%chance

19285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

922

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

Will Adelyn Moore appear in at least 1 podcast in 2025?

Jan 2, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91.82%chance

2235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

30

Will clear evidence that Robbi Jade Lew did cheat Garrett Adelstein emerge by mid 2026

Nov 24, 2:40 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

14.84%chance

5212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against colorectal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.38%chance

5195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

259

Will adept.ai (or some other agent AI) be able to create an account and batch-write questions from a .txt file onto manifold.markets by the end of 2025?

Feb 20, 7:32 AMMar 1, 4:59 AM

65.17%chance

498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

116

Will Jess Adepoju (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 18, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.47%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

98

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against stomach adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.38%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

261

Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?

Jan 10, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.32%chance

468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

97

Will Blessing Adeoye (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 18, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.87%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

63

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.2%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

283

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