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Prediction markets for Administrative Law

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

157

Will the Trump administration deport a US citizen to El Salvador this year?

Mar 17, 2:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.63%chance

647475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

827

Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?

Nov 7, 11:10 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

24.67%chance

396777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM

65%chance

385366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

734

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Trump declares nationwide martial law?

Apr 6, 12:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

20.51%chance

322165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.89%chance

151304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

705

Trump proclaims a 'Straight Pride month' by August 2026?

May 6, 8:47 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

9.78%chance

231076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.75%chance

22858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

906

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

Mar 18, 11:02 PMMay 29, 8:59 PM

5197

OptionProbability

Until resolution date

Until EOY 2026

Until EOY 2025

Until EOY 2024

72

58

47

0

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

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