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Prediction markets for ADS

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

11%chance

10013541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3483

104

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

Dec 13, 8:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24%chance

353888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

14.56%chance

83695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2422

413

Will Wikipedia show third-party ads before 2030?

Sep 26, 2:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.55%chance

83019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3779

265

Will there be ads with your face on them before 2028?

Oct 30, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.29%chance

282930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

706

Will ChatGPT have ads before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 3:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.15%chance

352558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

52.44%chance

122448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10501

9523

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

913

Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?

Aug 20, 2:05 AMAug 20, 2:03 AM

46.32%chance

17847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

929

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

941

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

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