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Prediction markets for Advance

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10048142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

1107

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

32.98%chance

5710753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11036

10936

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

965

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?

Dec 5, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

187861

OptionProbability

0.21-0.5%

0.51-1%

1.01-2%

2.01-5%

0-0.2%

5.01-10%

>10%

24

21

17

12

10

9

6

Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Mar 30, 2:13 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

12.36%chance

676653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

1096

Meta to release world's most advanced AI?

Jan 30, 7:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

9.36%chance

274854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3113

321

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

10201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Oct 19, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.25%chance

12163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

946

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