Advance Publications News

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.46%chance

9394808

OptionVotes

YES

1655

825

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

YES

1539

1185

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67%chance

19025245

OptionVotes

YES

1529

544

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.09%chance

6820483

OptionVotes

YES

1626

770

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2515681

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

8310020

OptionVotes

YES

2851

760

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

319197

OptionProbability

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

1073

935

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

1175

946

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

499

284

If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]

Sep 2, 12:05 PMJan 2, 2:33 AM

91147

OptionProbability

Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such.

Extraterrestrial life.

Anything genuninely supernatural (i.e. something a standard atheist physicalist would scoff at before this revelation)

New fundamental science discovery.

Extremely advanced but non-exotic non-AGI human technology, very far beyond current public knowledge (not just a few generations ahead).

Interference/interaction from other universes or dimensions.

Any explanation that appears to validate a religion with over 1 million followers.

Yudkowsky privately knew a worldview-shattering explanation was true in advance (and still made this bet for some reason).

Artificial intelligence.

Any religious/magical/paranormal explanation.

Any explanation that appears to validate the simulation hypothesis.

Ancient terrestrial civilization.

Time travel.

Entities from a traditional Abrahamic religion.

Advance Publications News

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Elon Musk (props)

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]

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