Advance Publications News

YES

NO

NO

NO

YES

YES

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

YES

YES

YES

YES

Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such.

Extraterrestrial life.

Anything genuninely supernatural (i.e. something a standard atheist physicalist would scoff at before this revelation)

New fundamental science discovery.

Extremely advanced but non-exotic non-AGI human technology, very far beyond current public knowledge (not just a few generations ahead).

Interference/interaction from other universes or dimensions.

Any explanation that appears to validate a religion with over 1 million followers.

Yudkowsky privately knew a worldview-shattering explanation was true in advance (and still made this bet for some reason).

Artificial intelligence.

Any religious/magical/paranormal explanation.

Any explanation that appears to validate the simulation hypothesis.

Ancient terrestrial civilization.

Time travel.