Advance Publications News

NO

NO

YES

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such.

Extraterrestrial life.

Anything genuninely supernatural (i.e. something a standard atheist physicalist would scoff at before this revelation)

New fundamental science discovery.

Extremely advanced but non-exotic non-AGI human technology, very far beyond current public knowledge (not just a few generations ahead).

Interference/interaction from other universes or dimensions.

Any explanation that appears to validate a religion with over 1 million followers.

Yudkowsky privately knew a worldview-shattering explanation was true in advance (and still made this bet for some reason).

Artificial intelligence.

Any religious/magical/paranormal explanation.

Any explanation that appears to validate the simulation hypothesis.

Ancient terrestrial civilization.

Time travel.

YES