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Prediction markets for Advanced

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

1185

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13646665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13320

9842

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

10904

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

965

Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?

May 13, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.6%chance

174959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

967

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

444082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Apple's Advanced Data Protection feature remains available in the United States through December 31, 2028

Feb 14, 5:07 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

3325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

760

Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

10201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Oct 19, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.25%chance

12163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

946

Will I pass my GCE Advanced Level?

Mar 17, 6:12 AMAug 15, 6:09 AM

33.12%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

840

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