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Prediction markets for Advanced

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.01%chance

14057416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19481

6656

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

1185

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

10904

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

965

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?

May 18, 6:49 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

59.71%chance

143301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12173

8215

Will Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)

Jun 4, 12:17 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

40%chance

112888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

897

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

49.5%chance

191780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Apple's Advanced Data Protection feature remains available in the United States through December 31, 2028

Feb 14, 5:07 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

3325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

760

Will I pass my GCE Advanced Level?

Mar 17, 6:12 AMAug 15, 6:09 AM

40.43%chance

7195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

670

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Oct 19, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.25%chance

12163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

946

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