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Prediction markets for Advanced Computing

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2027?

Jan 31, 3:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

112140

OptionProbability

1-2%

2-5%

0-1%

5-10%

10-20%

20-50%

>50%

31

21

15

15

9

6

3

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

By when will 5% of Americans cite "advancement of computers/technology" as the US's biggest problem? (Gallup)

Feb 6, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171685

OptionProbability

Does not reach 5% before 2036

By end of 2030

By end of 2031

By end of 2032

By end of 2033

By end of 2034

By end of 2035

By end of 2029

By end of 2028

By end of 2027

By end of 2026

51

49

49

49

49

49

49

47

34

20

12

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.82%chance

22556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

945

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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