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Prediction markets for Advanced Computing

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2027?

Jan 31, 3:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

266916

OptionProbability

0-1%

1-2%

2-5%

5-10%

10-20%

20-50%

>=50%

33

32

24

4

3

2

2

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

By when will 5% of Americans cite "advancement of computers/technology" as the US's biggest problem? (Gallup)

Feb 6, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

223313

OptionProbability

By end of 2035

By end of 2033

By end of 2034

By end of 2031

By end of 2032

By end of 2030

By end of 2027

By end of 2029

By end of 2028

Does not reach 5% before 2036

By end of 2026

71

69

69

68

68

66

63

63

62

27

15

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

970

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.29%chance

211908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.53%chance

24587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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